From Leicester City winning the title in 2016 to Liverpool overturning a 4-0 defeat to Barcelona in last season’s Champions League, football is impossible to predict.
Yet, bringing together world leading companies in data, analytics and artificial intelligence (AI), BT Sport has attempted to do just that.
Go deeper with GlobalData
Combining historic performance data from sports industry leaders Opta and Squawka, BT Sport has fed the information into a machine learning model.
This calculated the attacking and defensive strengths of each team, as well as the likelihood of events such as transfers and injuries, to calculate the probable scoreline of each match in the season.
So where does the AI model’s Premier League predictions 2019-20 place your team; where will they claim their biggest victory, and how will they perform against their biggest rivals?
Premier League predictions 2019-20
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By GlobalDataArsenal – Aston Villa – Bournemouth – Brighton – Burnley – Chelsea – Crystal Palace – Everton – Leicester City – Liverpool – Manchester City – Manchester United – Newcastle United – Norwich City – Sheffield United – Southampton – Tottenham – Watford – West Ham – Wolves
Arsenal – Predicted finish: 5th
Starting with a 2-1 defeat to Newcastle United, Arsenal begin their season with three losses in their first five matches, falling to 15th place in the table.
A convincing 6-1 win over the newly promoted Aston Villa prompts a seven-game unbeaten run. However, Arsenal’s form remains inconsistent throughout. A victory over Manchester United is followed by a 4-4 draw with Sheffield United, and defeat to Southampton comes the week after a 5-1 demolition of Leicester City.
The run sees Arsenal climb up to fifth – their highest position throughout the season – where they remain until the end of the campaign.
Defeat in the Europa League semi-final eventually confirms that Arsenal will miss out on the Champions League for another year.
Aston Villa – Predicted finish: 15th
Aston Villa struggle to readjust to life back in the Premier League, losing ten of their first 15 games, which leaves them rock bottom in the relegation zone.
However, the New Year brings Aston Villa luck, who go on to win three of their first four away games.
Their away form puts some distance between them and relegation, and despite suffering defeat to West Ham on the final day, a convincing 3-1 victory over Arsenal in the penultimate game had already given them the points they needed to confirm their place in the top league for another season.
Bournemouth – Predicted finish: 13th
Despite ending week one in the Champions League spots following a convincing 4-1 victory over Sheffield United, Bournemouth fail to get another win in their next five matches.
A 5-0 loss at the hands of reigning champions Manchester City in week three sets the pace for other sides to exploit the Premier League’s worst defence. A 3-0 defeat to Arsenal, 5-1 defeat to Watford, 4-2 defeat to Manchester United, 3-0 defeat to Tottenham, 3-1 defeat to Wolves, 3-1 defeat to Chelsea, and 3-1 defeat to West Ham sees Bournemouth enter the New Year below 15th.
Bournemouth are unable to capitalise on games against easy opposition, and face a difficult run in, in which they face Manchester City, Tottenham and Manchester United in their final six games.
Despite losses against Manchester City and Tottenham, a shock 2-1 win against Manchester United, coupled with wins against Southampton and Everton in their final two games is enough push Bournemouth up to 13th and secure their safety.
Brighton – Predicted finish: 16th
Brighton go top of the table in the first week after producing a 4-0 win against Watford. Despite following up with 1-0 wins in their following two games, the lack of goals sees them gradually slip down the table.
Defeat to Manchester City, draws with Burnley and Newcastle, and defeat to Chelsea and Tottenham curb talk of a top seven finish.
Brighton fail to regain their form, and at one point go more than 100 days without a victory. They slip down the table throughout the campaign, but those nine points in their first three games prove vital. Brighton finishes in 16th, three points off of the relegation zone and six points off of guaranteed relegation.
Burnley – Predicted finish: 17th
Despite two wins in their opening three games, Burnley faces a difficult schedule that sees them play Arsenal and Liverpool in their first four, with two defeats dampening the side’s confidence. They go eight games without a victory, leaving them in 16th place after 10 games.
A 5-0 demolition of West Ham kick-starts the club’s season, and they follow up with a number of convincing results including a 1-0 victory over Manchester City, making them one of just two sides to defeat the reigning champion throughout the campaign.
However, Burnley’s inconsistency eventually sees them finish in 17th, avoiding relegation by goal difference alone.
Chelsea – Predicted finish: 4th
With questions raised by the transfer ban and an inexperienced manager in Frank Lampard, an opening defeat to Manchester United adds further fuel to the fire.
A fairly easy schedule sees Chelsea claim seven wins in their next nine games. A 5-1 defeat to Manchester City in week 13, followed by a 2-1 defeat to West Ham, threatens to derail that spell of form. However, Chelsea hold on to their lead at the top of the table until Christmas.
Chelsea’s season sours from there, and three consecutive losses to Leicester City, Manchester United and Tottenham sees them drop down to fourth. Despite a shaky finish, Chelsea hold on to their position and clinch the final Champions League spot.
Crystal Palace – Predicted finish: 10th
A difficult schedule, which sees Crystal Palace five of the top six sides in their first 12 games (which end in five defeats), leaves the side sat in the relegation zone. However, a shock 3-1 victory over Liverpool, which ends the Champions League winner’s undefeated record, brings an end to Palace’s bad spell.
The second half of the season proves kinder to the club, with a 4-1 victory over rivals Brighton pushing the club above 15th.
A refusal to be beaten (Palace will draw more games than any other side), sees them climb into the top half of the table as the season approaches its conclusion.
Everton – Predicted finish: 7th
Everton carry their good form from the back end of last season into the new campaign, going unbeaten in their first 10 matches to keep the pace with the Premier League’s top sides.
Tottenham will eventually do what even Manchester City were unable to do and break down Everton, securing a narrow 2-1 victory that wobbles the club. A 4-1 defeat to Southampton and 1-1 draw with Norwich follows, before Everton regain their composure to claim back-to-back victories over Liverpool and Chelsea. That is followed by five games without a win.
Everton’s inconsistency sees them fall to as low as 10th in the table with five games left to play. However, four consecutive wins puts them in seventh and in with a shot of Europa League qualification.
Leicester City – Predicted finish: 9th
Having broken its transfer record to secure the permanent signing of Youri Tielemans from Monaco, Leicester City will be confident of improving on their ninth place finish last season, but back-to-back defeats in their opening two games will leave them in the relegation zone without a goal to their name.
Leicester brush off their slow start to embark on a nine game unbeaten run, securing a point against Liverpool and victory over Tottenham along the way.
However, Arsenal end that good form with a 5-1 victory, which sets Leicester up for a three-month stretch without a victory at home. That changes in February with a 2-0 victory over a struggling Chelsea side. Despite a number of decent results following, Leicester are unable to climb out of their mid-table position.
Liverpool – Predicted finish: 2nd
Despite a lack of transfer activity and a poor pre-season record, Liverpool continue to push reigning champions Manchester City in the early stages of the season. Their first five matches see them win five, score 14 and concede none.
Seemingly fearful of defeat, Liverpool go on to draw a number of games that they would be expected to win, before eventually losing to Crystal Palace in week 13.
Liverpool shake off their inconsistency as the New Year approaches. However, by that point Manchester City has pulled ahead. A 4-1 defeat to Manchester City in week 32 all but ends Liverpool’s title hopes, and they once again finish just short.
Without a Champions League final to contest, a 6-1 hammering of rivals Manchester United will be the club’s only consolation prize this year. Mo Salah gets his own reward, securing the Golden Boot with 29 goals to his name.
Manchester City – Predicted finish: 1st
A 0-0 draw to West Ham marks at poor start to the campaign for reigning champions Manchester City, especially when compared to Liverpool’s 4-0 victory over Norwich. The club’s inconsistent form continues during the early stages, with victories over Tottenham and Bournemouth soon followed by draws against Norwich and Everton.
Back-to-back defeats to Newcastle and Burnley seem to force Manchester City into action. The club wins its next nine games to return to the top of the table in the New Year.
In a repeat of last season, Manchester City and Liverpool enter the final weeks level on points, but a convincing 4-1 victory over Liverpool all but ends their chances. City wrap up the title in the remaining weeks, finishing with a 6-1 hammering of Norwich City.
Manchester United – Predicted finish: 6th
Manchester United return to the top of the Premier League for the first time in years after three convincing wins from three in their opening matches. However, three draws to Southampton, Leicester and West Ham later, followed by defeat to Arsenal, brings an end to the club’s short-lived title hopes.
Manchester United start 2020 with a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal which is quickly overshadowed by a humiliating 6-1 defeat to fierce rivals Liverpool. Manchester City claim their security Manchester derby victory of the season soon after.
Despite remaining within distance of the top four throughout the season, Leicester end any hope on the final day of the season. United finish the campaign in sixth, two points off of Champions League qualification.
Newcastle United – Predicted finish: 18th
Despite two victories in their first four games, £40m man Joelinton won’t be able to save Newcastle United from the drop this season.
The club suffers its heaviest defeat since 2015 in week nine – 5-0 to Chelsea. Despite promising results against Wolves and Aston Villa in the weeks that follow, those two wins prove to be their only victories in 14 games, until a run of two wins in three games leading up to Christmas.
Newcastle heads into 2020 in the relegation zone, and despite some good results (including a 3-0 revenge win over Chelsea and a draw against Manchester City), the club is unable to find the level of consistency needed to beat the drop. They finish level on points with Burnley, but drop down to the Championship on goal difference.
Norwich City – Predicted finish: 19th
A 4-0 defeat to Liverpool in the opening game of the season is quickly overshadowed by some impressive early form from Norwich. The club goes on to pick up points in six of its next 11 matches, putting them in a season-high position of ninth.
Results quickly sour, with the club failing to secure a victory in their next ten matches, ending talk of Europa League qualification and putting the newly-promoted side back in the relegation battle.
Requiring a win against title winners Manchester City on the final day of the season, Norwich’s place among the relegated sides was all but confirmed, even before the 6-1 defeat.
Sheffield United – Predicted finish: 20th
Sheffield United, embarking on their first Premier League campaign since 2006, get an early taste of the Premier League’s step up in quality from the Championship. The club suffer three defeats in their opening four games, picking up a single point against Crystal Palace.
Their first victory of the campaign – a 4-1 win against Southampton – is soon forgotten as the club goes another nine games without victory. A shocking 5-0 win against Manchester United offers fans something to remember, but Sheffield struggles to pull itself out of the relegation zone.
Four consecutive defeats to end the campaign confirm that Sheffield will take their place back in the Championship for the 2020-21 season.
Southampton – Predicted finish: 14th
Southampton start the season in poor form, and are the only team not to have picked up three points after five games played.
After ten games, the club sits bottom of the league with just five points and five goals scored – the worst record in the league.
However, an unexpected victory over Manchester City in week 11 turns things around for the club. Victories over Everton and Arsenal follow, carrying Southampton back towards mid-table. However, more bad form follows, building up to a 5-0 defeat to Chelsea on Boxing Day.
The club’s inconsistent form continues into 2020, but 50 goals scored is enough to save the club from relegation. Southampton finish 14th, just four points off of the relegation zone.
Tottenham Hotspur – Predicted finish: 3rd
Despite victory in their opening game, a 1-0 defeat to Manchester City in week two quickly reminds the club that they’re still some way off of challenging for the title. That is confirmed by January after Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool all take three points against Spurs leading up to the New Year.
Tottenham continues to do enough to maintain their top four place throughout the campaign, taking three points against Manchester City and Chelsea to finish nine points clear of fifth-placed Arsenal.
However, poor results against the likes of Sheffield United and Newcastle ensures that the 20-point gap between second and third remains for a second season.
Watford – Predicted finish: 8th
Watford begin the season with their biggest ever opening day defeat, as Brighton run riot in a 4-0 victory. Things go from bad to worse, with the club failing to score in their next two, picking up a single point for their efforts. They score in their fourth, but still lose to Newcastle. Then they beat Arsenal 2-0.
Watford’s inconsistency continues throughout the campaign, but they do just enough to find their place amongst the middle-placed teams.
Despite dropping down to 14th after Christmas, Watford complete a run of five games without defeat in the final few months of the campaign to secure their safety, despite ending with back-to-back losses against Manchester City and Arsenal.
West Ham – Predicted finish: 11th
West Ham starts the season by bringing a quick end to Manchester City’s 14-game run of victories from last season, and despite suffering defeat against Brighton, the club claims three wins and a draw to take them into the Europa League spots after six games.
However, in the weeks that follow one single win is cushioned between two five-game winless runs. Form picks up around the festive period, but West Ham soon suffer another run of seven games without a victory.
A 1-0 victory over Chelsea in week 32 sees West Ham’s form pick up, and they go on to claim 11 points from a remaining 21 to finish up 11th, one place below their 2018-19 finish.
Wolverhampton Wanderers – Predicted finish: 8th
Following an impressive 7th place finish in the 2018-19 campaign, Wolves set the bar high again this year with an opening day victory over former champions Leicester City.
Despite a disappointing spell that leaves the club in the relegation zone, four straight wins in December provides some festive cheer.
By April, Wolves find themselves just short of Arsenal in seventh place, reviving hopes of another season in the Europa League. However, poor form to end the campaign – three defeats and three draws in their final six games – ended any hope of that.
Premier League predictions 2019-20: Final table
Source: Datawrapper
