Avengers: Infinity War box office estimates are in and they’re seriously impressive.
The culmination of the Marvel Cinematic Universe made $250 million at the US box office. Internationally it raised a further $380 million giving it a total box office gross of $630 million on its opening weekend.
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That means that Marvel has clinched the US opening weekend box office record. The previous title-holder was 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens which made $247.9 million. It’s vast opening also makes it the biggest opening weekend box office in the world ever (if you don’t adjust for inflation).
Still, Marvel hasn’t quite managed to beat 2017 The Fate Of The Furious to be crowned the biggest international opening weekend box office of all time. The eighth Fast And Furious film made $443 million at its debut.
However, one of the reasons The Fate Of The Furious has managed to beat Avengers: Infinity War is because the latter has yet to open in two huge markets.
Moviegoers in China and Russia are yet to get access to the film. It will debut in Russia on the 4 May and China on 11 May.
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By GlobalData
How much will Russia and China add the Infinity War box office total?
There’s no denying that Russia and China both have the potential to add some major momentum to Infinity War.
How much will they add to Infinity War‘s total opening weekend gross when the film does open in those countries?
Russia
On average, a Marvel film makes $8.34 million in Russia on its opening weekend. It is worth bearing in mind, however, that Avengers movies do much better than the average film from the cinematic universe.
The original Avengers made $14.95 million on its opening weekend in Russia. Meanwhile, its sequel, Age Of Ultron made $16.04 million on its opening weekend.
Therefore, it seems reasonably likely that, Infinity War‘s opening weekend in Russia will make at least the average of the two, $15.50 million.
China
In China, the average for a Marvel film’s opening weekend is $52.55 million.
Unfortunately, there is no data about the success of the first Avengers crossover movie, but just like in Russia, Age Of Ultron did significantly better than average.
That film generated $155.75 million at the Chinese box office on its opening weekend.
Given that Infinity War is an even bigger crossover, there’s no reason to think it won’t do just as well or better.
Overall, there’s definitely evidence to suggest that, had Infinity War launched in China and Russia at the same time as the rest of the world, it would have been the largest opening weekend for any film in the world ever.
Will the Infinity War box office momentum last?
As it stands, there’s no denying that Marvel is on a hot streak. The studio currently has two films in the top ten, as February’s Black Panther is still drawing huge audiences.
Including its debut, Black Panther remained the top film at the US box office for five consecutive weekends. Previously, Thor: Ragnarok stayed at number one for two weekends, Spider-Man: Homecoming lasted one weekend, and Doctor Strange lasted two weekends.
The original Avengers film lasted three weekends, while its sequel Age Of Ultron stuck it out for just two weekends.
In contrast, the highest grossing film ever Avatar was the number one film at the US box office for eight weeks. The second highest-grossing, Titanic lasted 17 weekends.
Still, while those films dwarf anything the Marvel Cinematic Universe has done, there is hope for Infinity War.
The third highest-grossing film of all time, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was only number one at the box office for four weekends. Marvel executives will be hoping Black Panther‘s success proves Infinity War can do the same.
Diminishing returns
The only trouble is that with each consecutive number one weekend, Marvel will see smaller and smaller returns.
By its second weekend, the original Avengers made 50.3% less than its debut weekend. For Age Of Ultron, things looked even dicier: its second weekend it made 59.3% less than its opening weekend. Both films continued making less and less each subsequent weekend for months.
Still, while Black Panther has continued with diminishing returns, its success has stymied the flow of cash a little. By its second weekend, Black Panther was down just 44.7% from the previous weekend.
Overall, the average drop for a Marvel film on its second weekend is 55.2%.
But again, compare that to Avatar, the highest-grossing film ever. From its first to the second weekend, Avatar‘s box office dropped just 1.8%.
Titanic actually grew 23.8% from its first to its second weekend and continued to grow on subsequent weekends.
Even Star Wars: The Force Awakens only dropped 39.8% from its first to the second weekend.
How much could Infinity War make?
If Marvel’s average holds, Infinity War should make around $138 million in the US next weekend. Including weekday showings, that should mean that Infinity War generates around $400 million at the US box office in its first ten days.
However, on average America is only responsible for 41% of a Marvel movie’s total box office gross. If this average holds true, it will make an additional $575 million at the international box office. That’d mean a total box office result of $975 million in its first ten days.
In generating just under $1 billion in its first ten days, Infinity War would be in contention for one of the top spots in the list of highest grossing movies ever.
By contrast, in its first ten days, Avatar made just $212.71 at the US box office.
Titanic made even less at $88.43 million in ten days.
It’s worth remembering though, that both those films’ weekend box office didn’t drop as Marvel movies’ tend to.
Still, additional openings in China and Russia will definitely give Infinity War a serious shot in the arm.
In addition, unlike Avatar, Titanic and even Black Panther, due to its launch date, Infinity War will face stern competition from summer blockbusters.
This includes other major superhero and science-fiction films. For example, Deadpool 2 launches 18 May and Solo: A Star Wars story comes out 25 May. Both will attract similar audiences to Marvel’s epic crossover.
In its opening weekend alone, Infinity War made well over the film’s $300 million to $400 million budget at the box office.
And it looks like it will continue to make money for many weeks to come.
